Re: [nukkad] Is US Economy already in Recession?

["Dr.M.C. Gupta" <>]

Forgot to include the link in last mail. It is--



http://seekingalpha.com/article/8940-will-the-usa-nuke-its-way-out-of-recession-etfs-gld-xle
 Will the USA Nuke Its Way Out of Recession?

posted on: April 11, 2006

Increased saber-rattling and growing rumours that the USA may even plan a
nuclear strike against Iran have left their mark on commodity prices again.
Oil scratching at the $70 mark and gold and silver at quarter-century highs
express the world's fears of another armed conflict in the area with the
biggest fossil energy reserves worldwide.

Looking back into history offers a very uncomfortable perspective. Since the
1930s war has always helped to pull the USA out of recessions:

* The Great Depression ended with world war II.
* The slump in the 1950s ended with the Korea war.
* In the 1960s Vietnam helped grease the military industrial complex.
* The recession in the early 1980s preceded the Nicaragua conflict.
* Interference in the Kosovo in the 1990s stood at the beginning of
irrational exuberance in the 1990s.
* In the new millennium the biggest defense (?) budgets and the invasion of
Iraq helped pull the USA out of the rubble after the dot.com bubble until
now.

Taking into account increasing pressure on the property market from higher
interest rates, worsening demographics with their associated higher medical
costs and the biggest debt bubble, private and public, all signs are
pointing towards a recession. To lift the economy out of the doldrums by way
of war the USA would only follow a concept that has worked well in the past.

=================


On 1/22/08, Indian Rediff  wrote:
>
> I would appreciate the links to 'experts' that state, explicitly, that
> WWI, WWII were started primarily because of a recession in the US.
> Frankly, this is the first time I am hearing of such a correlation.
>
> Secondly, if such a correlation exists for WWI and WWII, I'd like a
> similar aggression tactic being used by the US to drag itself out of a
> recession for the dates as detailed in the following document:
>
> http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
>
> Even if you can give me wars initiated for the following periods -
> those within our memories - it would be great:
>
> March 2001 thru November 2001 (which is when the last recession in the
> US ended) - note - Afghan war began *after* the recession had ended.
> Iraw war began well after that - and there was no recession ongoing at
> the time or for a couple of years before the invasion began.
>
> July 1990 thru March 1991
>
> July 1981 thru November 1982
>
> January 1980 thru July 1980
>
> Thanks,
>
> Sai
>
> On Jan 22, 2008 10:34 AM, Dr.M.C. Gupta  wrote:
> > This is serious, though not unexpected. It might as well be the
> harbinger of
> > a new war by US. History is witness that whenever recession has hit US
> > economy in the past, it has found an effective antidote in war. The
> first
> > and the second world wars had their genesis in US recession. And, so did
> the
> > Iraq war. the present itch in the US to invade Iran and Syria is
> probably
> > symptomatic of the inevitable consequence of the US recession.
> >
> > NB: The above is not MY thinking. I am neither a historian nor an
> economist.
> > These are views expressed by US experts to which I can give reference if
> > anybody is doubtful.
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> -Chinese proverb
>
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-- 
Prof. M C Gupta
MD (Medicine), MPH,  LL.M.,

Advocate & Health and Medico-legal Consultant

mcgupta44@gmail.com
www.writing.com/authors/mcgupta44
http://mcgupta44.blogspot.com/


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